Orioles at Phillies
Last play · Ryan Noda called out on strikes.
Win probability
Phillies100%
BAL 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 0 – 4 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Phillies favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Max Kepler homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Brandon Marsh scores. (inning 2) — +16% Phillies
8Brandon Marsh homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.0–5
4Bryson Stott triples (3) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Dylan Carlson. Max Kepler scores.0–4
2Max Kepler homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Brandon Marsh scores.0–3
2Brandon Marsh doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Nick Castellanos scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








