Orioles at Phillies
Last play · Trea Turner grounds into a double play, shortstop Gunnar Henderson to second baseman Jackson Holliday to first baseman Coby Mayo. Rafael Marchán out at 2nd. Trea Turner out at 1st.
Win probability
Phillies0%
BAL 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 4 – 1 PHI
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+150 / -180
Phillies favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Coby Mayo homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Adley Rutschman scores. Jeremiah Jackson scores. (inning 4) — -29% Orioles
7Jackson Holliday singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Alex Jackson scores.5–1
5Trea Turner singles on a line drive to center fielder Dylan Carlson. Weston Wilson scores. Rafael Marchán to 2nd.4–1
4Coby Mayo homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Adley Rutschman scores. Jeremiah Jackson scores.4–0
4Jeremiah Jackson doubles (1) on a ground ball to left fielder Weston Wilson. Gunnar Henderson scores. Adley Rutschman to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








