Astros at Marlins
Last play · Christian Walker strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Marlins100%
HOU 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 3 – 6 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Marlins favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Walker homers (16) on a line drive to left center field. Jesús Sánchez scores. (inning 1) — -22% Astros
6Victor Caratini doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Christian Walker scores.4–6
5Graham Pauley homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.3–6
5Carlos Correa doubles (20) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Mauricio Dubón scores.3–5
3Heriberto Hernández homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.2–5
2Agustín Ramírez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Cam Smith. Xavier Edwards scores.2–4
1Heriberto Hernández singles on a ground ball to third baseman Carlos Correa. Liam Hicks scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd. Jakob Marsee to 2nd.2–3
1Otto Lopez singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Taylor Trammell. Kyle Stowers scores. Liam Hicks to 2nd.2–2
1Liam Hicks singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jesús Sánchez, deflected by shortstop Mauricio Dubón. Xavier Edwards scores. Kyle Stowers to 2nd.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








