Reds at Cubs
Last play · Gavin Lux called out on strikes.
Win probability
Cubs100%
CIN 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 0 – 1 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Cubs favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Seiya Suzuki homers (27) on a line drive to left field. (inning 6) — +20% Cubs
9Austin Hays grounds out softly, third baseman Matt Shaw to first baseman Michael Busch. TJ Friedl scores.1–6
8Nico Hoerner singles on a line drive to left fielder Jake Fraley. Matt Shaw scores.0–6
8Ian Happ homers (16) on a line drive to left center field.0–5
7Carson Kelly singles on a line drive to left fielder Jake Fraley. Justin Turner scores. Seiya Suzuki to 2nd.0–4
7Dansby Swanson homers (18) on a fly ball to left field.0–3
6Seiya Suzuki homers (27) on a line drive to left field.0–2
3Seiya Suzuki out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jake Fraley. Nico Hoerner scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








