Red Sox at Padres
Last play · Ramón Laureano singles on a ground ball to left fielder Roman Anthony. Xander Bogaerts scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 2nd.
Win probability
Padres100%
BOS 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 3 – 4 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -155
Padres favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Roman Anthony hits a ground-rule double (16) on a line drive to left-center field. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. (inning 9) — -38% Red Sox
10Ramón Laureano singles on a ground ball to left fielder Roman Anthony. Xander Bogaerts scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 2nd.4–5
9Roman Anthony hits a ground-rule double (16) on a line drive to left-center field. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.4–4
5Ramón Laureano walks. Jackson Merrill scores. Xander Bogaerts to 3rd. Ryan O'Hearn to 2nd.3–4
5Ryan O'Hearn walks. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Jackson Merrill to 3rd. Xander Bogaerts to 2nd.3–3
3Xander Bogaerts singles on a line drive to center fielder Jarren Duran. Luis Arraez scores. Manny Machado to 3rd.3–2
3Masataka Yoshida reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by pitcher Wandy Peralta. Trevor Story scores.3–1
2Xander Bogaerts homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
1Jarren Duran singles on a soft line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Alex Bregman scores. Jarren Duran out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Jackson Merrill to third baseman Manny Machado to shortstop Xander Bogaerts.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








