Cubs at Cardinals
Last play · Matt Shaw grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman Thomas Saggese. Dansby Swanson out at 2nd.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
CHC 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 2 – 2 STL
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
Cardinals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Shaw homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Dansby Swanson scores. (inning 5) — -25% Cubs
7Nolan Gorman singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Jordan Walker scores. Nolan Gorman to 2nd.2–3
5Matt Shaw homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Dansby Swanson scores.2–2
3Pedro Pagés homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. Thomas Saggese scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








