Rays at Mariners
Last play · Chandler Simpson grounds out, second baseman Jorge Polanco to first baseman Josh Naylor.
Win probability
Mariners100%
TB 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 3 – 4 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+150 / -180
Mariners favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cal Raleigh homers (45) on a fly ball to right field. Randy Arozarena scores. (inning 1) — +17% Mariners
8Dominic Canzone singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jake Mangum. Jorge Polanco scores. Mitch Garver to 2nd.3–6
7Josh Naylor homers (15) on a line drive to right field.3–5
4Ha-Seong Kim homers (2) on a line drive to left field.3–4
3Yandy Díaz grounds out, second baseman Jorge Polanco to first baseman Josh Naylor. Chandler Simpson scores.2–4
2Ha-Seong Kim doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Josh Lowe scores.1–4
1Eugenio Suárez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Julio Rodríguez scores. Josh Naylor scores.0–4
1Cal Raleigh homers (45) on a fly ball to right field. Randy Arozarena scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








