Twins at Yankees
Last play · Ryan Jeffers strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Yankees100%
MIN 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 0 – 3 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
Yankees favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trevor Larnach homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 7) — -14% Twins
8Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (20) on a fly ball to right center field.2–6
7Aaron Judge singles on a ground ball to left fielder Kody Clemens. Anthony Volpe scores. Trent Grisham to 2nd.2–5
7Trent Grisham singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Trevor Larnach. Ryan McMahon scores. Anthony Volpe to 3rd.2–4
7Trevor Larnach homers (16) on a fly ball to right field.2–3
6Byron Buxton homers (24) on a fly ball to left center field.1–3
3Ben Rice homers (17) on a fly ball to right field.0–3
3Giancarlo Stanton homers (11) on a fly ball to center field.0–2
1Cody Bellinger homers (21) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








