Red Sox at Padres
Last play · Ceddanne Rafaela strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
BOS 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 3 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -155
Padres favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Arraez doubles (23) on a fly ball to center fielder Jarren Duran. Freddy Fermin scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. (inning 3) — +23% Padres
7Ryan O'Hearn out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Roman Anthony. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.2–6
7Romy Gonzalez reaches on a fielder's choice. Jarren Duran scores. Trevor Story scores. Masataka Yoshida to 2nd. Fielding error by shortstop Xander Bogaerts.2–5
6Jake Cronenworth walks. Xander Bogaerts scores. Jackson Merrill to 3rd. Ramón Laureano to 2nd.0–5
6Xander Bogaerts singles on a fly ball to left fielder Roman Anthony. Manny Machado scores.0–4
5Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a ground ball to left fielder Roman Anthony. Jake Cronenworth scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder Roman Anthony to third baseman Alex Bregman to second baseman Ceddanne Rafaela.0–3
3Luis Arraez doubles (23) on a fly ball to center fielder Jarren Duran. Freddy Fermin scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








