Padres at Giants
Last play · Dominic Smith flies out to left fielder Bryce Johnson.
Win probability
Giants0%
SD 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 0 SF
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Giants favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Freddy Fermin homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Jake Cronenworth scores. (inning 7) — -22% Padres
7Freddy Fermin homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Jake Cronenworth scores.4–1
7Jake Cronenworth singles on a ground ball to right fielder Drew Gilbert. Bryce Johnson scores.2–1
6Rafael Devers homers (23) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
6Jackson Merrill doubles (16) on a line drive to right fielder Drew Gilbert. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Manny Machado to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








