Red Sox at Astros
Last play · Jeremy Peña pops out to shortstop Trevor Story.
Win probability
Astros0%
BOS 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 0 HOU
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -155
Astros favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carlos Narváez homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Masataka Yoshida scores. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. (inning 6) — -17% Red Sox
9Ramón Urías grounds into a force out, third baseman Alex Bregman to second baseman Ceddanne Rafaela. Yainer Diaz scores. Taylor Trammell out at 2nd. Ramón Urías to 1st. Throwing error by second baseman Ceddanne Rafaela.14–1
9Masataka Yoshida grounds into a force out, pitcher Chas McCormick to shortstop Jeremy Peña. Alex Bregman scores. Jarren Duran to 3rd. Trevor Story out at 2nd. Masataka Yoshida to 1st.14–0
9Trevor Story singles on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Trammell. Roman Anthony scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd. Jarren Duran to 2nd.13–0
8Wilyer Abreu doubles (16) on a fly ball to center fielder Jacob Melton. Trevor Story scores. Abraham Toro scores.12–0
8Abraham Toro singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Taylor Trammell. Jarren Duran scores. Trevor Story to 2nd.10–0
8Roman Anthony homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.9–0
7Wilyer Abreu doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jacob Melton. Trevor Story scores. Masataka Yoshida to 3rd.8–0
6Alex Bregman homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. Roman Anthony scores.7–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








