Padres at Giants
Last play · Rafael Devers strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Giants0%
SD 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 4 – 1 SF
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +125
Giants favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jose Iglesias homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Ramón Laureano scores. (inning 2) — -24% Padres
8Jackson Merrill homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field.5–1
4Jake Cronenworth singles on a line drive to center fielder Jung Hoo Lee, deflected by second baseman Casey Schmitt. Ramón Laureano scores. Jake Cronenworth out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Jung Hoo Lee to first baseman Rafael Devers to shortstop Willy Adames.4–1
2Jose Iglesias homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Ramón Laureano scores.3–1
1Wilmer Flores singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Manny Machado. Casey Schmitt scores. Rafael Devers to 2nd.1–1
1Jackson Merrill strikes out swinging.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








