Red Sox at Astros
Last play · Rob Refsnyder strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
BOS 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 2 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -155
Astros favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yainer Diaz homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field. Victor Caratini scores. (inning 6) — +17% Astros
6Yainer Diaz homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field. Victor Caratini scores.1–4
2Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a line drive to center fielder Jacob Melton. Trevor Story scores. Wilyer Abreu to 3rd.1–2
1Yainer Diaz singles on a line drive to left fielder Roman Anthony. Jose Altuve scores. Victor Caratini to 2nd.0–2
1Jeremy Peña homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








