Mariners at Orioles
Last play · Josh Naylor grounds out, second baseman Jackson Holliday to first baseman Coby Mayo.
Win probability
Orioles100%
SEA 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 0 – 5 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +110
Orioles favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jeremiah Jackson singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Daniel Johnson scores. (inning 4) — +16% Orioles
9Orioles challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Randy Arozarena grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman Jackson Holliday. Dominic Canzone scores. Mitch Garver to 3rd. Dylan Moore out at 2nd. Randy Arozarena to 1st.3–5
6Julio Rodríguez homers (24) on a fly ball to right center field. Josh Naylor scores.2–5
5Ryan Mountcastle out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Jordan Westburg scores. Gunnar Henderson to 3rd.0–5
5Gunnar Henderson doubles (29) on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Jackson Holliday scores. Jordan Westburg to 3rd.0–4
4Jeremiah Jackson singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Daniel Johnson scores.0–3
4Daniel Johnson walks.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








