Orioles at Astros
Last play · Ramón Urías grounds into a force out, third baseman Jordan Westburg to second baseman Jackson Holliday. Carlos Correa scores. Jose Altuve to 3rd. Christian Walker out at 2nd. Ramón Urías to 1st.
Win probability
Astros100%
BAL 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 2 – 3 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Astros favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Holliday homers (15) on a fly ball to right field. Dylan Carlson scores. (inning 8) — -34% Orioles
12Ramón Urías grounds into a force out, third baseman Jordan Westburg to second baseman Jackson Holliday. Carlos Correa scores. Jose Altuve to 3rd. Christian Walker out at 2nd. Ramón Urías to 1st.4–5
8Jackson Holliday homers (15) on a fly ball to right field. Dylan Carlson scores.4–4
7Jose Altuve homers (22) on a fly ball to center field.2–4
5Dylan Carlson homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Daniel Johnson scores.2–3
4Carlos Correa singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Beavers. Mauricio Dubón scores. Chas McCormick to 3rd. Jacob Melton to 2nd.0–3
4Jacob Melton singles on a ground ball to left fielder Dylan Carlson. Cam Smith scores. Mauricio Dubón to 3rd. Chas McCormick to 2nd.0–2
2Mauricio Dubón singles on a ground ball to center fielder Daniel Johnson. Cam Smith scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








