Pirates at Cubs
Last play · Tommy Pham grounds out, third baseman Willi Castro to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Cubs100%
PIT 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 2 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
Cubs favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joey Bart doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Nick Gonzales scores. Jack Suwinski scores. (inning 6) — -31% Pirates
8Dansby Swanson out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Ronny Simon. Carson Kelly scores. Ian Happ to 3rd.3–4
6Carson Kelly singles on a fly ball to center fielder Jack Suwinski. Seiya Suzuki scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 3rd.3–3
6Joey Bart doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Nick Gonzales scores. Jack Suwinski scores.3–2
5Dansby Swanson doubles (16) on a ground ball to left fielder Tommy Pham. Ian Happ scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd. Dansby Swanson advances to 3rd, on a fielding error by left fielder Tommy Pham.1–2
3Spencer Horwitz doubles (16) on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores.1–1
2Ian Happ singles on a line drive to center fielder Jack Suwinski. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








