Orioles at Red Sox
Last play · Ceddanne Rafaela grounds out, third baseman Luis Vázquez to first baseman Ryan Mountcastle.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
BAL 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 2 – 0 BOS
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Red Sox favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gunnar Henderson homers (15) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 3) — -14% Orioles
9Jarren Duran doubles (34) on a fly ball to center fielder Colton Cowser. Roman Anthony scores. Nathaniel Lowe scores.6–3
9Samuel Basallo singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Luis Vázquez scores. Gunnar Henderson scores.6–1
7Jarren Duran out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Colton Cowser. Alex Bregman scores. Trevor Story to 3rd.4–1
7Ryan Mountcastle singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Gunnar Henderson scores.4–0
7Gunnar Henderson triples (5) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Roman Anthony. Jackson Holliday scores.3–0
4Dylan Beavers singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Samuel Basallo scores. Jeremiah Jackson to 2nd.2–0
3Gunnar Henderson homers (15) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








