Brewers at Cubs
Last play · William Contreras grounds into a double play, third baseman Matt Shaw to second baseman Willi Castro to first baseman Michael Busch. Caleb Durbin out at 2nd. William Contreras out at 1st.
Win probability
Cubs100%
MIL 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 2 – 5 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -155
Cubs favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Owen Caissie singles on a line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Seiya Suzuki scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Willi Castro to 3rd. (inning 1) — +17% Cubs
6Owen Caissie homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.4–6
6Sal Frelick singles on a line drive to right fielder Owen Caissie. Brice Turang scores. Joey Ortiz to 3rd. Sal Frelick to 2nd.4–5
6Brice Turang singles on a ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Andrew Vaughn scores.3–5
5Sal Frelick singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Brandon Lockridge scores.2–5
4Christian Yelich homers (26) on a fly ball to right field.1–5
3Willi Castro homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Seiya Suzuki scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.0–5
1Owen Caissie singles on a line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Seiya Suzuki scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Willi Castro to 3rd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








