Cardinals at Marlins
Last play · Javier Sanoja called out on strikes.
Win probability
Marlins0%
STL 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 3 – 2 MIA
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
Marlins favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alec Burleson singles on a line drive to center fielder Derek Hill. Iván Herrera scores. (inning 7) — -19% Cardinals
9Nolan Gorman homers (12) on a fly ball to right field. Willson Contreras scores.8–3
8Pedro Pagés singles on a line drive to right fielder Dane Myers. Nolan Gorman scores. Pedro Pagés to 2nd.5–3
7Alec Burleson singles on a line drive to center fielder Derek Hill. Iván Herrera scores.4–3
6Jakob Marsee doubles (8) on a pop up to shortstop Masyn Winn. Agustín Ramírez scores.3–3
5Willson Contreras out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Derek Hill. Lars Nootbaar scores.3–2
5Alec Burleson singles on a ground ball to shortstop Otto Lopez, deflected by first baseman Eric Wagaman. Nathan Church scores. Lars Nootbaar to 3rd. Iván Herrera to 2nd.2–2
5Lars Nootbaar singles on a line drive to left fielder Jakob Marsee. Pedro Pagés scores. Nathan Church to 3rd.1–2
4Eric Wagaman homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








