Giants at Padres
Last play · Patrick Bailey flies out to left fielder Ramón Laureano.
Win probability
Padres100%
SF 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 1 – 4 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
Padres favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado grounds out, third baseman Casey Schmitt to first baseman Dominic Smith. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd. (inning 1) — +14% Padres
6Luis Arraez grounds into a force out, pitcher Carson Seymour to shortstop Christian Koss. Elias Díaz scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. out at 2nd. Luis Arraez to 1st.1–5
5Ryan O'Hearn singles on a line drive to right fielder Drew Gilbert. Manny Machado scores.1–4
4Fernando Tatis Jr. walks. Gavin Sheets scores. Jose Iglesias to 3rd. Elias Díaz to 2nd.1–3
4Jose Iglesias singles on a line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Ramón Laureano to 3rd. Gavin Sheets to 2nd.1–2
1Manny Machado grounds out, third baseman Casey Schmitt to first baseman Dominic Smith. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd.1–1
1Jung Hoo Lee homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








