Mariners at Phillies
Last play · Josh Naylor grounds out sharply, second baseman Bryson Stott to first baseman Bryce Harper.
Win probability
Phillies100%
SEA 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 3 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Phillies favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eugenio Suárez homers (39) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 7) — -16% Mariners
8Kyle Schwarber homers (45) on a fly ball to right field. Trea Turner scores.2–11
8Trea Turner singles on a ground ball to second baseman Cole Young. Max Kepler scores.2–9
7Bryce Harper singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Kyle Schwarber scores.2–8
7Kyle Schwarber singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Luke Raley. Bryson Stott scores. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber to 2nd. Kyle Schwarber advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by right fielder Luke Raley.2–7
7Trea Turner singles on a ground ball to shortstop J.P. Crawford, deflected by second baseman Cole Young. Harrison Bader scores. Bryson Stott to 3rd.2–5
7Bryson Stott singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Brandon Marsh scores. Harrison Bader to 3rd.2–4
7Eugenio Suárez homers (39) on a fly ball to left field.2–3
4Max Kepler homers (13) on a line drive to right field.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








