Giants at Padres
Last play · Christian Koss strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
SF 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 1 – 6 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
Padres favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gavin Sheets homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 2) — +15% Padres
8Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Freddy Fermin scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. out at 3rd, pitcher José Buttó to third baseman Casey Schmitt.1–8
7Ryan O'Hearn homers (16) on a fly ball to center field.1–7
4Casey Schmitt homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.1–6
3Gavin Sheets homers (17) on a fly ball to right field. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Ramón Laureano scores.0–6
3Manny Machado homers (21) on a fly ball to center field.0–3
2Gavin Sheets homers (16) on a fly ball to right field.0–2
1Ryan O'Hearn singles on a line drive to center fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








