Giants at Padres
SF4–
SD8Last play · Patrick Bailey strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
SF 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 2 – 8 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
Padres favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Freddy Fermin hits a sacrifice bunt. Throwing error by third baseman Casey Schmitt. Ramón Laureano scores. Jake Cronenworth scores. Freddy Fermin to 1st. Fielding error by right fielder Luis Matos. (inning 5) — +25% Padres
6Willy Adames homers (20) on a fly ball to center field.4–8
6Rafael Devers homers (25) on a fly ball to right center field.3–8
5Ramón Laureano singles on a ground ball to right fielder Luis Matos. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Xander Bogaerts to 2nd.2–8
5Xander Bogaerts singles on a ground ball to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Manny Machado scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 3rd.2–7
5Manny Machado doubles (32) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Freddy Fermin scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.2–6
5Freddy Fermin hits a sacrifice bunt. Throwing error by third baseman Casey Schmitt. Ramón Laureano scores. Jake Cronenworth scores. Freddy Fermin to 1st. Fielding error by right fielder Luis Matos.2–4
4Xander Bogaerts out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Luis Arraez scores. Manny Machado to 2nd.2–2
4Manny Machado singles on a fly ball to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.