Cardinals at Rays
Last play · Willson Contreras strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays100%
STL 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 1 – 7 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Rays favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tristan Gray homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Carson Williams scores. (inning 2) — +20% Rays
8Junior Caminero homers (36) on a fly ball to center field.6–10
7Carson Williams homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Everson Pereira scores.6–9
7Willson Contreras homers (19) on a fly ball to right center field. Iván Herrera scores.6–7
7Nathan Church homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Jordan Walker scores.4–7
6Thomas Saggese grounds into a force out, shortstop Carson Williams to second baseman Tristan Gray. Willson Contreras scores. Masyn Winn out at 2nd. Thomas Saggese to 1st.2–7
4Jake Mangum doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Brandon Lowe scores. Josh Lowe scores.1–7
3Bob Seymour singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Jake Mangum scores.1–5
3Carson Williams singles on a ground ball to shortstop Masyn Winn. Josh Lowe scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd.1–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








