Cardinals at Rays
Last play · Josh Lowe strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays0%
STL 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 6 – 3 TB
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
Rays favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alec Burleson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Josh Lowe. Lars Nootbaar scores. Iván Herrera scores. (inning 2) — -25% Cardinals
7Junior Caminero grounds out, pitcher Matt Svanson to third baseman Nolan Gorman to first baseman Willson Contreras. Chandler Simpson scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd. Brandon Lowe to 2nd.7–4
7Willson Contreras homers (18) on a fly ball to left center field.7–3
4Iván Herrera singles on a ground ball to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Nathan Church scores. Lars Nootbaar to 2nd.6–3
3Yandy Díaz homers (21) on a fly ball to right field. Chandler Simpson scores.5–3
2Alec Burleson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Josh Lowe. Lars Nootbaar scores. Iván Herrera scores.5–1
2Lars Nootbaar doubles (20) on a fly ball to center fielder Everson Pereira. Pedro Pagés scores. Nathan Church to 3rd.2–1
2Nathan Church reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Bob Seymour. Thomas Saggese scores. Pedro Pagés to 3rd.1–1
1Brandon Lowe grounds out softly, pitcher Sonny Gray to first baseman Willson Contreras. Chandler Simpson scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








