Mets at Braves
Last play · Nacho Alvarez Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Braves0%
NYM 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 3 – 2 ATL
Mets led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
Braves favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jeff McNeil homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. Francisco Lindor scores. Juan Soto scores. (inning 3) — -35% Mets
9Jeff McNeil homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field.9–2
9Mark Vientos homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.8–2
7Starling Marte homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.7–2
7Mark Vientos homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.6–2
7Pete Alonso homers (29) on a fly ball to right field. Juan Soto scores.5–2
4Drake Baldwin grounds out, pitcher Clay Holmes to first baseman Pete Alonso. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Michael Harris II to 2nd.3–2
4Marcell Ozuna out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Matt Olson scores. Ronald Acuña Jr. to 3rd.3–1
3Jeff McNeil homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. Francisco Lindor scores. Juan Soto scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








