Liberty vs. Missouri State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Liberty gets at Missouri State: 52nd at running it, against a unit 126th at defending the run. Where Missouri State gets at Liberty: 2nd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 96th at keeping everything in front of them. Liberty is also 87th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 127th.
How
LIBattacks
MOST
- 1
Run it
running it · projected
LIB#52 of 138MOST#126 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
LIB#87 of 138MOST#127 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected
LIB#87 of 138MOST#125 of 138
HowMOSTattacksLIB
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
MOST#2 of 138LIB#96 of 138
The two teams
Liberty
Liberty runs it: Jamey Chadwell's offenses have been run-leaning across 8 seasons. The way in is 119th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 116th at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −24.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Liberty has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#119projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#116projected
- Defenserunning it#114projected
Missouri State
Missouri State is in year 1 under Casey Woods. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 136th at keeping a clean pocket.
Missouri State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#2projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#137projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#136projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#131projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MOST Elo 1284, LIB Elo 1697 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MOST -0.7 (51% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
LIB108th76thMOSTMOST101st62ndLIBThrough the air
LIB88th59thMOSTMOST109th34thLIBOn the ground
LIB90th115thMOSTMOST84th95thLIBStaying on the field
LIB110th53rdMOSTMOST96th78thLIBTaking care of it
LIB48th46thMOSTMOST75th46thLIB
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| LIB | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.6 (#89) | CORE overall | -16.2 (#125) |
| -1 / +4 | offense / defense | -10 / +6 |
| 1.44 | points / drive | 0.00 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 4.36 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 80% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Liberty vs. Missouri State?
Gridpex's model favors Missouri State with a 51% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Liberty vs. Missouri State?
The model projects Missouri State by 0.7.
What time is Liberty vs. Missouri State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 28, 2:00 PM ET, at Plaster Sports Complex.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →