Central Michigan vs. Ball State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Central Michigan gets at Ball State: 58th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 125th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Where Ball State gets at Central Michigan: 13th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 65th at keeping everything in front of them. Central Michigan is also 73rd on first and second down, against a unit 126th.
How
CMUattacks
BALL
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
CMU#58 of 138BALL#125 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
CMU#73 of 138BALL#126 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
CMU#79 of 138BALL#125 of 138
HowBALLattacksCMU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
BALL#13 of 138CMU#65 of 138
The two teams
Central Michigan
Central Michigan is in year 2 under Matt Drinkall. No unit here sits far enough from the national average to build a plan around — nothing to lean on, and nothing obvious to attack.
Central Michigan has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Ball State
Ball State is in year 2 under Mike Uremovich. The strengths are offensive, led by 13th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at throwing it, and they are 137th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Ball State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#13projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it#137projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#137projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#137projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BALL Elo 1112, CMU Elo 1259 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BALL +2.7 (43% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
CMU136th131stBALLBALL119th42ndCMUThrough the air
CMU137th131stBALLBALL103rd26thCMUOn the ground
CMU76th129thBALLBALL95th102ndCMUStaying on the field
CMU126th66thBALLBALL129th110thCMUTaking care of it
CMU124th46thBALLBALL48th22ndCMU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBall State leads 26–22–1 · 55% have been one-possession games
| CMU | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.6 (#110) | CORE overall | -23.0 (#133) |
| -10 / +1 | offense / defense | -16 / +7 |
| 0.78 | points / drive | 0.27 |
| 4.11 | allowed / drive | 4.67 |
| 56% | three-and-outs | 55% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Central Michigan vs. Ball State?
Gridpex's model favors Central Michigan with a 57% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Central Michigan vs. Ball State?
The model projects Central Michigan by 2.7.
What time is Central Michigan vs. Ball State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 28, 12:00 PM ET, at Scheumann Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →