North Dakota State vs. Air Force: Live Score & Win Probability
Live win probability & matchup
NDSUTeam statsAF
- Q4 4:26AFK. Hodges run for 2 yds, for a TD35–25
- Q4 10:59AFL. Szarka run for 2 yds, for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)35–19
- Q3 12:02NDSUN. Hayes pass to L. Conklin for 41 yds, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)35–13
- Q2 0:29NDSUM. Mitchell run for 1 yd, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)28–13
- Q2 1:48AFN. Hayes pass intercepted, B. Fletcher return for 95 yds, for a TD (C. Cremascoli PAT BLOCKED)21–13
- Q2 5:20NDSUN. Hayes pass to M. Collins for 44 yds, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)21–7
- Q2 8:14AFM. Hayes pass to A. Hrynciw for 29 yds, for a TD (C. Cremascoli KICK)14–7
- Q2 14:08NDSUN. Hayes run for 17 yds, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)14–0
- Q1 9:54NDSUM. Mitchell run for 31 yds, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)7–0
Our model, right now
Where this stands
updatingMitchell's TD swing
Myles Mitchell’s 31‑yard rush now puts NDSU ahead, swinging win chance by 18 points.
Yardage disparity
NDSU has amassed 65 yards in just over five minutes, while Air Force manages only three yards in 1:28 of possession.
Air Force’s rushing is being stuffed on 50% of attempts, while NDSU records a 0% stuff rate, reflecting early Bison dominance.
Pregame expectations
NDSU entered as a 2‑point favorite, yet Air Force’s live win probability sits at 47%, showing the game is tighter than the spread suggested.
The win-probability timeline fills in a few plays into the game.
- Our model prices this game live at NDSU −9.7 (0% NDSU).
- Against the pregame line (NDSU −2), NDSU covers in 99% of finishes from this state.
- Scoring pace projects a final total of 62 vs the 48.5 line — the over hits 100%.
Cover and over probabilities are our live model measured against the pregame consensus. Not betting advice.
- PassNathan Hayes 14/22, 228 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushMyles Mitchell 15 CAR, 61 YDS, 2 TD
- RecLogan Conklin 2 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLiam Szarka 5/10, 103 YDS, 1 INT
- RushLiam Szarka 21 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMatt Long 1 REC, 35 YDS
Teams up 10 with 2 minutes left — like North Dakota State right now — went on to win 97% of the time across 944 comparable historical situations.
- Northern Illinois vs OhioW 23–13
- LSU vs FloridaW 52–35
- South Alabama vs Western MichiganW 30–23
- Massachusetts vs MerrimackW 31–21
- Oregon vs IdahoW 24–14
FAQ
Who will win North Dakota State vs. Air Force?
Gridpex's model favors Air Force with a 67% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for North Dakota State vs. Air Force?
The model projects Air Force by 6.8.
What time is North Dakota State vs. Air Force and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 12, 10:00 PM ET on FS1, at Falcon Stadium.
| NDSU | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 377 | Total yards | 326 |
| 228 | Passing yards | 132 |
| 149 | Rushing yards | 194 |
| 18 | First downs | 17 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 14/22 | Comp/Att | 6/11 |
| 10.4 | Yards per pass | 12.0 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 27:33 | Possession | 29:47 |
- Q4 4:26AFK. Hodges run for 2 yds, for a TD35–25
- Q4 10:59AFL. Szarka run for 2 yds, for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)35–19
- Q3 12:02NDSUN. Hayes pass to L. Conklin for 41 yds, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)35–13
- Q2 0:29NDSUM. Mitchell run for 1 yd, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)28–13
- Q2 1:48AFN. Hayes pass intercepted, B. Fletcher return for 95 yds, for a TD (C. Cremascoli PAT BLOCKED)21–13
- Q2 5:20NDSUN. Hayes pass to M. Collins for 44 yds, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)21–7
- Q2 8:14AFM. Hayes pass to A. Hrynciw for 29 yds, for a TD (C. Cremascoli KICK)14–7
- Q2 14:08NDSUN. Hayes run for 17 yds, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)14–0
- Q1 9:54NDSUM. Mitchell run for 31 yds, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AF Elo 1424, NDSU Elo 1562 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AF -6.8 (67% to win) — 8.8 points clear of AF's market line of +2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NDSU | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.8 (#35) | CORE overall | -14.9 (#127) |
| +3 / -8 | offense / defense | -1 / +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →