UAB vs. North Texas Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where UAB gets at North Texas: 7th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 80th at keeping everything in front of them. Where North Texas gets at UAB: 18th in the push up front, against a unit 135th at holding the line of scrimmage. UAB is also 65th at running it, against a unit 133rd.
How
UABattacks
UNT
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UAB#7 of 138UNT#80 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
UAB#65 of 138UNT#133 of 138 - 3
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
UAB#74 of 138UNT#133 of 138
HowUNTattacksUAB
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
UNT#18 of 138UAB#135 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
UNT#22 of 138UAB#132 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
UNT#49 of 138UAB#136 of 138
The two teams
UAB
UAB is in year 1 under Alex Mortensen. The strengths are offensive, led by 7th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 136th on early downs defensively, and they are 135th at holding teams to field goals.
UAB has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#7projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensefirst and second down#136projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#135projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#135projected
North Texas
North Texas is in year 1 under Neal Brown, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 18th in the push up front. The way in is 133rd at defending the run, and they are 133rd at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
North Texas has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#18projected
- Offenserunning it#22projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#33projected
Projected soft spots
- Defenserunning it#133projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#133projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#131projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNT Elo 1699, UAB Elo 1403 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNT -8.3 (70% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UAB111th100thUNTUNT72nd133rdUABThrough the air
UAB130th85thUNTUNT61st3rdUABOn the ground
UAB122nd70thUNTUNT68th22ndUABStaying on the field
UAB22nd116thUNTUNT47th125thUABTaking care of it
UAB21st22ndUNTUNT21st127thUAB
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUAB leads 6–3 · North Texas has won 2 straight · 56% have been one-possession games
| UAB | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.0 (#92) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#50) |
| +0 / +5 | offense / defense | +10 / +4 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 3.00 |
| 3.00 | allowed / drive | 2.76 |
| 6% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| -17 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win UAB vs. North Texas?
Gridpex's model favors North Texas with a 70% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UAB vs. North Texas?
The model projects North Texas by 8.3.
What time is UAB vs. North Texas and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at DATCU Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →