Army vs. Memphis Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where Army gets at Memphis: 3rd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 98th at stuffing runs at the line. Where Memphis gets at Army: 40th in the push up front, against a unit 126th at holding the line of scrimmage. Army is also 1st at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 87th.
How
ARMYattacks
MEM
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected · 2 games in
ARMY10.8%#3 of 138MEM13.1%#98 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected · 2 games in
ARMY5.1%#1 of 138MEM14.7%#87 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected · 2 games in
ARMY+0.46#45 of 138MEM+0.34#127 of 138
HowMEMattacksARMY
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · 26% this season, 3 games
MEM3.29#40 of 138ARMY2.78#126 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · 27% this season, 3 games
MEM+0.22#30 of 138ARMY+0.16#94 of 138 - 3
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 57% this season, 3 games
MEM1.50#4 of 138ARMY1.21#49 of 138
The two teams
Army
Army runs it: Jeff Monken's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 1st at keeping a clean pocket. The way in is 127th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 126th at holding the line of scrimmage.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −10.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Army has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 19% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss5.1%#1 of 138
- Offensegetting stopped at the line10.8%#3 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.11#127 of 138
- Defensethe push the line gets2.78#126 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down48%#123 of 138
Memphis
Memphis is in year 1 under Charles Huff, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 127th at defending the run, and they are 121st at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −38.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Memphis has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 31% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.50#4 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.22#30 of 138
Soft spots
- Defenserunning it+0.34#127 of 138
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.39#121 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down54%#120 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MEM Elo 1526, ARMY Elo 1530 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MEM +2.9 (43% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ARMY19th129thMEMMEM7th61stARMYThrough the air
ARMY131st125thMEMMEM46th46thARMYOn the ground
ARMY1st130thMEMMEM32nd53rdARMYStaying on the field
ARMY34th72ndMEMMEM110th73rdARMYTaking care of it
ARMY21st22ndMEMMEM104th127thARMY
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ARMY | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 | points / drive | 2.41 |
| 3.50 | allowed / drive | 2.30 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -27 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Army vs. Memphis?
Gridpex's model favors Army with a 57% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Army vs. Memphis?
The model projects Army by 2.9.
What time is Army vs. Memphis and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →