The Citadel vs. Charlotte: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
THE Team statsCLT
- 3OT 0:00THE Pass to Whit Hobgood for Two-Point Conversion43–41
- 2OT 0:00THE Nick Billoups 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)41–41
- 2OT 0:00CLTJaylen Hampton 18 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–41
- OT 0:00CLTCole Gonzales 8 Yd Run (Ian Kelly Kick)35–35
- OT 0:00THE Gavin Garcia 25 Yd Run (Evan Kiely Kick)35–35
- Q4 0:24CLTJaylen Hampton 6 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Ian Kelly Kick)28–28
- Q4 12:11THE Nick Billoups 2 Yd Run (Evan Kiely Kick)28–21
- Q3 1:32THE Gavin Garcia 1 Yd Run (Evan Kiely Kick)21–21
- Q3 7:38CLTCole Gonzales 11 Yd Run (Ian Kelly Kick)14–21
- Q3 12:48THE Sebastien Boyle 56 Yd Run (Evan Kiely Kick)14–14
- Q2 5:47CLTDerrick Eley 43 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Ian Kelly Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:03CLTKhamani Alexander 66 Yd Run (Ian Kelly Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:23THE Gavin Garcia 2 Yd Run (Evan Kiely Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Nobody could get a stop. What separated The Citadel in a track meet.
Bring an abacus. The Citadel outduels Charlotte, 43-41 at Jerry Richardson Stadium. The two sides combined for 84 points, and The Citadel had just a little more. Gavin Garcia ran 21 times for 137 yards and three scores.
- PassNick Billoups 7/10, 91 YDS
- RushGavin Garcia 21 CAR, 137 YDS, 3 TD
- RecIsmael Zamor 3 REC, 56 YDS
- PassCole Gonzales 28/41, 322 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushKhamani Alexander 14 CAR, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaylen Hampton 8 REC, 117 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:24CLT +90%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #2 J.Hampton caught at CIT00, for 6 yards to the CIT00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 0:17THE +82%
#5 G.Garcia rush left for 14 yards gain to the CIT39 (#3 D.Womack), 1ST DOWN
- 2OT 0:00THE +48%
Nick Billoups 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
- OT 0:00CLT +42%
Shotgun #8 N.Billoups pass incomplete short right to #5 G.Garcia thrown to CLT22 QB hurried by #7 D.Burgess
- Q4 12:11THE +38%
Shotgun #8 N.Billoups rush left for 2 yards gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN
- 2OT 0:00CLT +32%
Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short right to #2 J.Hampton caught at CIT00, for 18 yards to the CIT00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic re…
FAQ
What was the final score of The Citadel vs. Charlotte?
The Citadel 43, Charlotte 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CLT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| THE | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| 400 | Total yards | 538 |
| 132 | Passing yards | 322 |
| 268 | Rushing yards | 216 |
| 16 | First downs | 21 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 11-17 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 9/13 | Comp/Att | 28/41 |
| 10.2 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 6.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 6-35 |
| 29:45 | Possession | 30:15 |
Costliest call
Q2 11:50 THE punt on 4th & 4 at CLT 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.61 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- 3OT 0:00THE Pass to Whit Hobgood for Two-Point Conversion43–41
- 2OT 0:00THE Nick Billoups 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)41–41
- 2OT 0:00CLTJaylen Hampton 18 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–41
- OT 0:00CLTCole Gonzales 8 Yd Run (Ian Kelly Kick)35–35
- OT 0:00THE Gavin Garcia 25 Yd Run (Evan Kiely Kick)35–35
- Q4 0:24CLTJaylen Hampton 6 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Ian Kelly Kick)28–28
- Q4 12:11THE Nick Billoups 2 Yd Run (Evan Kiely Kick)28–21
- Q3 1:32THE Gavin Garcia 1 Yd Run (Evan Kiely Kick)21–21
- Q3 7:38CLTCole Gonzales 11 Yd Run (Ian Kelly Kick)14–21
- Q3 12:48THE Sebastien Boyle 56 Yd Run (Evan Kiely Kick)14–14
- Q2 5:47CLTDerrick Eley 43 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Ian Kelly Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:03CLTKhamani Alexander 66 Yd Run (Ian Kelly Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:23THE Gavin Garcia 2 Yd Run (Evan Kiely Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects CLT -18.6 (86% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#5 of 10 in 2026 by biggest miss · #2 of 10 in 2026 by longest odds.
The 2026 upset archive →Cole Gonzales was responsible for 30 of Charlotte's 41 points
Nobody could get a stop. What separated The Citadel in a track meet.
The difference-makers
Gavin Garcia ran 21 times for 137 yards and three scores — two of them from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. Nick Billoups threw for 91 yards on 10 attempts and ran 11 times for 38 yards and two scores — that score from inside the 20 and five third-down conversions. Sebastien Boyle ran seven times for 70 yards and one score and caught two passes for 22 yards. For Charlotte, Cole Gonzales threw for 322 yards on 41 attempts with three touchdowns and ran six times for 31 yards and two scores — three of them from inside the 20, eight third-down conversions and a hand in nine plays of 15 yards or more. Jaylen Hampton caught eight passes for 117 yards, two of them for touchdowns, including two of them from inside the 20, five third-down conversions and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Khamani Alexander ran 14 times for 138 yards and one score and caught one pass for 5 yards, with two third-down conversions and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Zyion Brown was the disruptive one for The Citadel: 1 sack, 1.5 TFLs, 1 INT, 1 PBU, 8 tackles.
The snaps that mattered
It came down to a few snaps. Khamani Alexander's 66-yard run for a touchdown on 3rd-and-1 at Q1 06:03. Then Sebastien Boyle's 56-yard run for a touchdown on 2nd-and-8 at Q3 12:48. Later, Nick Billoups's 41-yard throw to Damir Abdullah on 3rd-and-8 at Q3 05:55.
The turnover battle was the game
The Citadel won the turnover battle 0-2: Zyion Brown (1 sack, 1.5 TFLs, 1 INT, 1 PBU, 8 tackles) and Zeb Stroup (1 INT, 2 tackles). Charlotte produced 12 plays of 15+ yards to The Citadel's 7, chiefly Cole Gonzales (involved in 9), Jaylen Hampton (involved in 3) and Khamani Alexander (involved in 3). That's what carried The Citadel.
How we got here
The Citadel struck first through Gavin Garcia, Charlotte led 14-7 at the half and The Citadel got the final points on a late score by Whit Hobgood.
The number
The closing line had Charlotte -20.5. The Citadel covered. The total was 49.5; the teams combined for 84, an over. Gavin Garcia accounted for 18 of The Citadel's points.
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Points were never the problem for The Citadel; stops will be the offseason project for both. Cole Gonzales was responsible for 30 of Charlotte's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →