Notre Dame vs. Navy Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Notre Dame gets at Navy: 5th at throwing it, against a unit 130th at defending the pass. Where Navy gets at Notre Dame: 2nd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 35th at stuffing runs at the line. Notre Dame is also 9th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 129th.
How
NDattacks
NAVY
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · projected
ND#5 of 138NAVY#130 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
ND#9 of 138NAVY#129 of 138 - 3
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
ND#20 of 138NAVY#129 of 138
HowNAVYattacksND
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
NAVY#2 of 138ND#35 of 138
The two teams
Notre Dame
Notre Dame is in year 6 under Marcus Freeman, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Notre Dame has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#3projected
- Offenserunning it#4projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#4projected
Navy
Navy runs it: Brian Newberry's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 130th at defending the pass, and they are 129th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Navy has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#2projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#13projected
- Offenserunning it#16projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#130projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#129projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#129projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NAVY Elo 1513, ND Elo 2070 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects NAVY +28.3 (3% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ND45th108thNAVYNAVY43rd19thNDThrough the air
ND26th133rdNAVYNAVY135th23rdNDOn the ground
ND114th6thNAVYNAVY2nd13thNDStaying on the field
ND45th112thNAVYNAVY62nd34thNDTaking care of it
ND1st127thNAVYNAVY48th5thND
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNotre Dame leads 84–13–1 · Notre Dame has won 8 straight · 30% have been one-possession games
| ND | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| 4.39 | points / drive | 2.54 |
| -0.05 | allowed / drive | 3.67 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +13 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win Notre Dame vs. Navy?
Gridpex's model favors Notre Dame with a 97% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Notre Dame vs. Navy?
The model projects Notre Dame by 28.3.
What time is Notre Dame vs. Navy and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET, at Gillette Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →