Minnesota vs. Wisconsin Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Neither side projects a clear way in. Minnesota and Wisconsin rate within touching distance on every unit matchup here, closest at hitting chunk plays — on this evidence it comes down to the things a season profile cannot see.
The two teams
Minnesota
Minnesota runs it: P.J. Fleck's offenses have been run-leaning across 11 seasons. The way in is 124th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 114th at running it.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −36.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Minnesota has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#124projected
- Offenserunning it#114projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#113projected
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is in year 4 under Luke Fickell, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 16th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 125th at moving the ball on the ground, and they are 125th on first and second down.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −28.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Wisconsin has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#16projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#30projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#125projected
- Offensefirst and second down#125projected
- Offensethrowing it#123projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WIS Elo 1475, MINN Elo 1452 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WIS +5.4 (36% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MINN77th81stWISWIS67th82ndMINNThrough the air
MINN23rd63rdWISWIS97th29thMINNOn the ground
MINN133rd87thWISWIS85th103rdMINNStaying on the field
MINN34th39thWISWIS68th84thMINNTaking care of it
MINN21st127thWISWIS48th108thMINN
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWisconsin leads 63–62–8 · Minnesota has won 2 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| MINN | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.8 (#114) | CORE overall | -0.8 (#73) |
| -5 / +8 | offense / defense | -6 / -6 |
| 0.75 | points / drive | 0.67 |
| 5.00 | allowed / drive | 3.78 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +28 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win Minnesota vs. Wisconsin?
Gridpex's model favors Minnesota with a 64% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Minnesota vs. Wisconsin?
The model projects Minnesota by 5.4.
What time is Minnesota vs. Wisconsin and what channel is it on?
Fri, Nov 27, 7:30 PM ET, at Camp Randall Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →