Michigan vs. Ohio State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 4.7 toward 
OSU
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | OSU −13.5 | OSU −18.2 |
| OSU win | 82% | 89% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Ohio State gets at Michigan: 2nd at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 55th at closing out passing downs. Michigan projects no clear way in against Ohio State. Ohio State is also 1st at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 41st.
HowOSUattacks
MICH
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
OSU#2 of 138MICH#55 of 138 - 2
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
OSU#1 of 138MICH#41 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
OSU#1 of 138MICH#34 of 138
The two teams
Michigan
Michigan is in year 1 under Kyle Whittingham, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 14th at running it. The way in is 115th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Michigan has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#14projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#16projected
- Offensefirst and second down#17projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#115projected
Ohio State
Ohio State throws it: Ryan Day's offenses have been pass-leaning across 8 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 1st at throwing it. The way in is 130th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −35.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Ohio State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethrowing it#1projected
- Offensefirst and second down#1projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#1projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#130projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OSU Elo 1983, MICH Elo 1702 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OSU -18.2 (89% to win) — 4.7 points clear of OSU's market line of -13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MICH118th13thOSUOSU17th25thMICHThrough the air
MICH126th40thOSUOSU5th22ndMICHOn the ground
MICH102nd46thOSUOSU71st70thMICHStaying on the field
MICH121st89thOSUOSU61st71stMICHTaking care of it
MICH75th46thOSUOSU48th76thMICH
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMichigan leads 62–53–6 · 39% have been one-possession games
| MICH | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.1 (#24) | CORE overall | +32.4 (#3) |
| +5 / -11 | offense / defense | +14 / -19 |
| 1.26 | points / drive | 3.59 |
| 0.95 | allowed / drive | 1.29 |
| 47% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Michigan vs. Ohio State?
Gridpex's model favors Ohio State with a 89% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Michigan vs. Ohio State?
The model projects Ohio State by 18.2.
What time is Michigan vs. Ohio State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 28, 12:00 PM ET, at Ohio Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →