Louisiana vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULTeam statsUSC
- Q4 2:38ULRussell Babineaux 14 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)30–49
- Q4 7:30USCKi. Miller run for 12 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK)23–49
- Q4 11:27ULL. Winfield run for 32 yds, for a TD23–42
- Q4 14:19USCJ. Maiava pass to Z. Williams for 44 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK)17–42
- Q3 4:07ULL. Winfield run for 1 yd, for a TD (T. Sterner KICK)17–35
- Q3 9:48USCJ. Maiava pass to T. Mosley for 21 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK)10–35
- Q2 1:24USCTrent Mosley 86 Yd Punt Return (Caden Chittenden Kick)10–28
- Q2 3:19USCKayden Dixon-Wyatt 19 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Caden Chittenden Kick)10–21
- Q2 9:21ULSteven Blanco 1 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)10–14
- Q2 12:31USCMark Bowman 9 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Caden Chittenden Kick)3–14
- Q1 4:57USCMark Bowman 5 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Caden Chittenden Kick)3–7
- Q1 11:23ULTony Sterner 47 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USC did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 6.6
- UL won this through the air — that lane, not the scoreboard, was the story against USC. +0.64 vs +0.36 EPA/play
Louisiana's cleanest path is through the air, but everything short of that runs into the most lopsided unit matchup on the field.
USC is favored by 30.8 and projects to win 44-17, and the reason is narrower than the number suggests. Louisiana's short-yardage and power offense against USC's defense is the widest single-unit gap on the field, wider than any passing or big-play edge in either direction. Louisiana scored 38 on Lamar and still went three-and-out on 41.7% of twelve drives. A stall rate that high against an FCS opponent is the part that travels.
- PassLunch Winfield 16/22, 212 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLunch Winfield 14 CAR, 91 YDS, 2 TD
- RecRussell Babineaux 6 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJayden Maiava 19/29, 261 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
- RushKing Miller 18 CAR, 128 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMark Bowman 6 REC, 83 YDS, 2 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana vs. USC?
Louisiana 30, USC 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
| UL | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 358 | Total yards | 483 |
| 212 | Passing yards | 269 |
| 146 | Rushing yards | 214 |
| 17 | First downs | 25 |
| 3-10 | 3rd down | 11-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 16/22 | Comp/Att | 20/31 |
| 9.6 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 8-78 |
| 26:46 | Possession | 33:14 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:23 UL field goal on 4th & 1 at USC 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.32 points.
- USCEnd Of Quarter4 plays · 14 yds · from USC 35 · Q4 2:38+0.1 EPA
- ULTouchdown8 plays · 75 yds · from UL 35 · Q4 7:30+5.7 EPA
- USCTouchdown7 plays · 75 yds · from USC 35 · Q4 11:27+3.7 EPA
- ULTouchdown5 plays · 75 yds · from midfield · Q4 14:19+3.7 EPA
- USCTouchdown3 plays · 60 yds · from UL 40 · Q3 0:33−2.7 EPA
- ULPunt3 plays · 1 yds · from UL 16 · Q3 1:34−0.8 EPA
- USCPunt6 plays · 19 yds · from USC 35 · Q3 4:02−0.5 EPA
- ULTouchdown12 plays · 81 yds · from UL 35 · Q3 9:44+3.1 EPA
- USCTouchdown7 plays · 41 yds · from UL 41 · Q3 12:53−0.2 EPA
- ULPunt3 plays · -2 yds · from USC 0 · Q3 15:00−1.0 EPA
- USCEnd of Half4 plays · 11 yds · from USC 31 · Q2 0:16−1.4 EPA
- ULPunt3 plays · 3 yds · from UL 35 · Q2 1:19−1.1 EPA
- ULPunt Touchdown5 plays · 20 yds · from UL 35 · Q2 3:19+0.3 EPA−1% WP
- USCTouchdown12 plays · 87 yds · from USC 35 · Q2 9:21+6.2 EPA+2% WP
- Q4 2:38ULRussell Babineaux 14 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)30–49
- Q4 7:30USCKi. Miller run for 12 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK)23–49
- Q4 11:27ULL. Winfield run for 32 yds, for a TD23–42
- Q4 14:19USCJ. Maiava pass to Z. Williams for 44 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK)17–42
- Q3 4:07ULL. Winfield run for 1 yd, for a TD (T. Sterner KICK)17–35
- Q3 9:48USCJ. Maiava pass to T. Mosley for 21 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK)10–35
- Q2 1:24USCTrent Mosley 86 Yd Punt Return (Caden Chittenden Kick)10–28
- Q2 3:19USCKayden Dixon-Wyatt 19 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Caden Chittenden Kick)10–21
- Q2 9:21ULSteven Blanco 1 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)10–14
- Q2 12:31USCMark Bowman 9 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Caden Chittenden Kick)3–14
- Q1 4:57USCMark Bowman 5 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Caden Chittenden Kick)3–7
- Q1 11:23ULTony Sterner 47 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1835, UL Elo 1389 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -30.9 (99% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UL | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.3 (#94) | CORE overall | +32.7 (#2) |
| -1 / +5 | offense / defense | +22 / -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Louisiana can throw on USC, but not push
Louisiana's cleanest path is through the air, but everything short of that runs into the most lopsided unit matchup on the field.
Louisiana wins
The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward USC, the more likely USC wins.
The stalls, not the 38 points, are the story of Louisiana's opener
Louisiana scored on 58.3% of its drives and averaged 38.4 yards per possession, a good afternoon. It also produced nothing at all on more than four of every ten series. That is an offense living on a handful of long gains rather than a chain of first downs, and the failed downs are exactly where USC's defense grades out best.
USC's 39-0 win over Fresno State looked different in shape, not just score: 54.7 yards per drive across ten possessions and a three-and-out on only 10.0% of them.
Maiava is the only quarterback here with a known floor
Jayden Maiava projects for 284 to 404 passing yards with a 90% chance of a touchdown, and that band comes off thirteen games last season plus this year's opener. Daniel Beale projects 43 to 89 passing yards from five appearances last season and no snaps yet in this one. The gap is not only quality. It is how much anyone knows.
USC also owns the staying-on-schedule matchup, which compounds the quarterback difference rather than duplicating it. Second-and-4 lets Maiava choose; second-and-9 lets a defense choose for him. Louisiana's opener shows an offense that either finished a drive or ended it fast, and against a front that wins on the downs where you need three yards, the fast endings become the norm.
Louisiana's run defense is the unit that can actually win its matchup
Louisiana ranks 35th of 185 by what it allows on the ground. That is a stingy front. Waymond Jordan projects 48 to 136 rushing yards with a 50% touchdown chance and King Miller 49 to 131 with a 58% chance, both ranges wide enough to include a stuffed afternoon for USC's ground game.
Points allowed per drive across all FBS defenses (lower is better). Louisiana's defense is below average, better than only 0% of FBS defenses.
Louisiana also holds the big-play edge against USC's offense, so the disaster script, a 70-yard answer every time Louisiana punts, is the least likely version of this. The result is a defense that can make USC earn possessions the slow way. It does not stop the bleeding, but it changes the pace of it, and pace is the only currency a 30-point underdog has.
Each unit matchup this season, sorted by how decisive it is — the top bar is what most tilts the game. Bars toward USC are battles it should win; toward Louisiana are ones Louisiana wins.
Louisiana's passing edge comes with almost no volume attached
The passing matchup is the single phase where Louisiana is the better side, and by a clear margin. The projected production says the same offense barely gets to use it: Beale at 43 to 89 yards, Shelton Sampson Jr. at 28 to 75 receiving with a 44% touchdown chance, Caden Jensen at 9 to 30. Those bands describe a team throwing from behind on short possessions, not one leaning on its best unit.
Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward USC are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).
Louisiana's path is the clock, not the upset
The cover math is friendlier to Louisiana than the win math. USC is projected to clear 30.8 only about a third of the time, because the favorite's route requires stacking a blowout while Louisiana's requires possessions that last. A methodical USC win that lands a few points short of the number is the most common single outcome here.
The counterweight is speed. The projection puts a 20-plus-point margin at 69% and a one-score finish at 12%. With the total at 60.2 and the under only a 19% proposition, this is not a game that stays low-scoring by accident. If Louisiana's three-and-out rate carries over, USC's field position does the work before the fourth quarter arrives.
USC needs drives, not just points
For USC, the short-yardage edge has to show up as sustained possessions rather than scoreboard flashes. The 10.0% three-and-out rate against Fresno State is what that looks like, and against this run defense it matters more than any long gain. Sitting on 50% and 58% touchdown chances for Jordan and Miller assumes the front gets moved; if it doesn't, Maiava has to be the whole answer.
For Louisiana, the game is decided on third-and-2. Getting Sampson his touchdown chance requires possessions, and possessions require converting the downs where USC is strongest. Cut the 41.7% stall rate in half and a two-touchdown loss covers comfortably. Repeat it against this level of opponent and the second half stops being competitive.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →