San Diego State vs. UCLA: Final Score & Recap

1%

-38

3%

-32

6%

-24

9%

-18

12%

-10

15%

-4

15%

+4

14%

+10

10%

+18

7%

+24

4%

+32

2%

+38

1%

+46

San Diego State winsUCLA wins

Market: UCLA −12Projected: UCLA by 1 (53%)

The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward UCLA, the more likely UCLA wins.

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The 35-10 scoreline is the oldest fact in this game

Last season separated these two cleanly: 26.4 points a game and nine wins for San Diego State, 18.2 points and nine losses for UCLA. Two full recruiting and portal cycles sit between now and that afternoon in San Diego.

Both opened with wins six days ago, by different routes. San Diego State scored on 61.5% of 13 drives against Portland State and gained 33.2 yards per drive in a 53-20 win. UCLA put 45 on California in Berkeley and won by 21 while going three-and-out on 57.1% of its 14 drives. The two drive charts do not describe the same offense.

The biggest edge on the board belongs to the underdog

◄San Diego StatefavorsUCLA►

Passing gameSan Diego State offense vs UCLA defenseSan Diego State — overwhelming edge

Run gameUCLA offense vs San Diego State defenseUCLA — overwhelming edge

Short-yardage / powerUCLA offense vs San Diego State defenseUCLA — big edge

Staying on scheduleUCLA offense vs San Diego State defenseUCLA — big edge

Big plays (overall)UCLA offense vs San Diego State defenseSan Diego State — clear edge

Each unit matchup this season, sorted by how decisive it is — the top bar is what most tilts the game. Bars toward UCLA are battles it should win; toward San Diego State are ones San Diego State wins.

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The largest single advantage in this game is San Diego State throwing at UCLA, worth 2.94 standard deviations, and it belongs to the team getting points. Jayden Denegal projects for 113 to 209 passing yards with a 55% chance of a touchdown. The bottom of that band is a game San Diego State loses by two scores. The top is the game where the number never comes into play.

Jordan Napier's 32 to 103 receiving yards is the widest band on either roster, and its high end is the version where UCLA's coverage never gets settled. Jacob Bostick appeared in four games last season and still carries a 55% touchdown chance here. Lucky Sutton at 78 to 126 rushing yards keeps San Diego State from having to throw on every early down.

UCLA scored 45 without staying on the field

UCLA scored on half of its drives in Berkeley while going three-and-out on more than half of them. That combination describes an offense that scores in bunches rather than in marches, and 45 points papers over it. San Diego State's defense grades best in exactly that column, big plays at 1.27 standard deviations, so UCLA is asked to win the version of the game it played worst last week.

The San Diego State defense is hard to beat over the top and reachable underneath. Against an opponent that produced its points without sustaining possessions, the deep half of that identity is the half that matters. UCLA's scoring then rides on grinding drives instead of the splash plays that carried the opener, and grinding drives are a slower way to reach 11.5.

The door is on the ground, and it opens slowly

San Diego State's run defense ranks 119th of 185 by what it allows, and UCLA's three largest edges all aim straight at it: 2.65 standard deviations running the ball, 1.57 in short yardage, 1.51 staying on schedule. That stack produces first downs and field position, not the 25-point separation these teams last produced.

The backfield projections are narrower than the edges imply. Jaivian Thomas projects 18 to 50 rushing yards and Anthony Woods 16 to 44 against that soft front, committee work rather than a workhorse afternoon. Nico Iamaleava, at 147 to 235 passing yards and a 72% touchdown chance, carries the highest scoring likelihood of anyone in this game, which puts UCLA's ceiling in his hands rather than the run game's.

◄San Diego StatefavorsUCLA►

Last season's body of worklast year's power rating, regressed toward the averageSan Diego State +7

Returning productionhow much of last year's production is back this seasonSan Diego State +5

Roster talentoverall talent level of the roster — recruiting pedigree plus an independent preseason roster gradeUCLA +3

In-season formschedule-adjusted results so far this seasonUCLA +2

Quarterbackthe projected starter's quality and how settled the job isUCLA +1

Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward UCLA are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).

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The number asks UCLA for more than it has shown

The projection gives UCLA roughly a 29% chance of covering 11.5 and about a 36% chance the game ends inside one score. Covering requires stacking scoring drives back to back, which is what the Berkeley drive data says UCLA did not do while winning by 21. San Diego State's side of the number asks for clock control, the more ordinary of the two requests.

The total is 53.2, and points are the likelier direction, with an under carrying only about a 15% chance. San Diego State allowed 20 in its opener and UCLA allowed 24. A 32-32 projection assumes both offenses keep finding the end zone rather than one defense taking the game over.

UCLA's path is to shorten the game

Home field and the better recruited roster pull the same direction, and Iamaleava's 72% is the highest touchdown chance attached to any player here. If UCLA converts short yardage early and keeps San Diego State's offense off the field, the passing edge never gets the snaps it needs. A 2.94-standard-deviation advantage stops mattering when it only sees eight possessions.

San Diego State only needs the game to stay normal

San Diego State needs Denegal near the top of his range and a defense that keeps UCLA's chunk plays in front of it. The stalled drives that follow are where field position swings its way. UCLA needs the run game to turn those three-and-outs into possessions long enough to build a two-score cushion. Nothing in either opener says that happens by eleven and a half.