Baylor vs. Houston Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Houston gets at Baylor: 67th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 100th at stuffing runs at the line. Baylor projects no clear way in against Houston.
How
HOUattacks
BAY
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected · 1 game in
HOU13.0%#67 of 138BAY23.5%#100 of 138
The two teams
Baylor
Baylor is in year 7 under Dave Aranda, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 19th at surviving second and twelve.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −1.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Baylor has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensesurviving second and twelve45%#19 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points1.00#22 of 138
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground50%#26 of 138
Houston
Houston runs it: Willie Fritz's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 16th at surviving second and twelve.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −14.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Houston has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 20% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensesurviving second and twelve56%#16 of 138
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air54%#17 of 138
- Defensethe push the line gets1.70#18 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HOU Elo 1514, BAY Elo 1506 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HOU -12.1 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
BAY107th49thHOUHOU8th22ndBAYThrough the air
BAY20th116thHOUHOU55th43rdBAYOn the ground
BAY69th1stHOUHOU7th33rdBAYStaying on the field
BAY82nd7thHOUHOU1st99thBAYTaking care of it
BAY124th46thHOUHOU48th22ndBAY
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 15–15–1 · 32% have been one-possession games
| BAY | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.1 (#20) | CORE overall | +9.4 (#38) |
| +9 / -8 | offense / defense | +6 / -4 |
| 1.42 | points / drive | 3.09 |
| 1.42 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Baylor vs. Houston?
Gridpex's model favors Houston with a 78% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Baylor vs. Houston?
The model projects Houston by 12.1.
What time is Baylor vs. Houston and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at TDECU Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →