Arizona State vs. Kansas Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 1.3 toward 
KU
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  ASU −5.5 | ASU −4.2 |
| KU win | 36% | 40% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Arizona State gets at Kansas: 83rd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 131st at keeping everything in front of them. Kansas projects no clear way in against Arizona State.
HowASUattacksKU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
ASU#83 of 138KU#131 of 138
The two teams
Arizona State
Arizona State is in year 4 under Kenny Dillingham, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 30th at defending the run.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+8.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −7.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arizona State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defenserunning it#30projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#33projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#33projected
Kansas
Kansas runs it: Lance Leipold's offenses have been run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 6th in the push up front. The way in is 131st at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 126th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −25.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Kansas has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#6projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#23projected
- Offensefirst and second down#32projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#131projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#126projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1485, ASU Elo 1531 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects KU +4.2 (40% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ASU15th63rdKUKU70th29thASUThrough the air
ASU8th67thKUKU53rd14thASUOn the ground
ASU57th60thKUKU62nd51stASUStaying on the field
ASU92nd46thKUKU77th22ndASUTaking care of it
ASU124th76thKUKU104th108thASU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ASU | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.46 | points / drive | 1.17 |
| 2.83 | allowed / drive | 3.46 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Arizona State vs. Kansas?
Gridpex's model favors Arizona State with a 60% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Arizona State vs. Kansas?
The model projects Arizona State by 4.2.
What time is Arizona State vs. Kansas and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET, at Wembley Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →