Florida vs. Florida State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 2.1 toward 
FSU
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  FLA −4.5 | FLA −2.4 |
| FSU win | 36% | 44% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Florida gets at Florida State: 39th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 99th at stuffing runs at the line. Where Florida State gets at Florida: 5th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 72nd at stuffing runs at the line. Florida State is also 30th on first and second down, against a unit 78th.
HowFLAattacksFSU
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
FLA#39 of 138FSU#99 of 138
HowFSUattacksFLA
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
FSU#5 of 138FLA#72 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
FSU#30 of 138FLA#78 of 138 - 3
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
FSU#12 of 138FLA#52 of 138
The two teams
Florida
Florida is in year 1 under Jon Sumrall, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 114th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Florida has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#114projected
Florida State
Florida State is in year 7 under Mike Norvell, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 5th in the push up front.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −19.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Florida State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#5projected
- Offenserunning it#11projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#11projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Availability-adjusted projection
what the absences moveAvailability impact
Model estimate- Out Kahleil Jackson (WR)not quantified
No ruled-out starters
Estimates from our player value-over-replacement model (reliable for QBs; softer elsewhere) — a calibrated prior, not a market or backtested figure. Context only, not a betting edge.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FSU Elo 1557, FLA Elo 1658 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FSU +2.4 (44% to win) — 2.1 points clear of FSU's market line of +4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
FLA5th128thFSUFSU97th26thFLAThrough the air
FLA19th136thFSUFSU118th77thFLAOn the ground
FLA19th56thFSUFSU38th43rdFLAStaying on the field
FLA58th136thFSUFSU101st89thFLATaking care of it
FLA75th9thFSUFSU48th9thFLA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFlorida leads 39–29–2 · Florida has won 2 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| FLA | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.4 (#17) | CORE overall | +2.9 (#60) |
| +10 / -8 | offense / defense | +5 / +2 |
| 6.00 | points / drive | 2.90 |
| 2.10 | allowed / drive | 2.32 |
| 9% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Florida vs. Florida State?
Gridpex's model favors Florida with a 56% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Florida vs. Florida State?
The model projects Florida by 2.4.
What time is Florida vs. Florida State and what channel is it on?
Fri, Nov 27, 3:30 PM ET, at Doak Campbell Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →