Auburn vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 3.8 toward 
AUB
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  ALA −10 | ALA −6.2 |
| ALA win | 78% | 65% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Alabama gets at Auburn: 20th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 71st at closing out passing downs. Auburn projects no clear way in against Alabama. Alabama is also 22nd at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 62nd.
HowALAattacksAUB
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected · 2 games in
ALA36%#20 of 138AUB31%#71 of 138 - 2
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · 20% this season, 2 games
ALA47%#22 of 138AUB40%#62 of 138
The two teams
Auburn
Auburn is in year 1 under Alex Golesh, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 7th at defending the run. The way in is 113th at throwing it, and they are 110th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Auburn has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 25% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defenserunning it-0.26#7 of 138
- Defensethe push the line gets2.11#9 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down41%#24 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensethrowing it+0.16#113 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.19#110 of 138
Alabama
Alabama throws it: Kalen DeBoer's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 8th at defending the pass.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −13.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Alabama has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 20% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensethrowing it-0.04#8 of 138
- Defensethe push the line gets0.80#8 of 138
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss20.4%#12 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ALA Elo 1859, AUB Elo 1678 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ALA -6.2 (65% to win) — 3.8 points clear of AUB's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
AUB61st11thALAALA84th33rdAUBThrough the air
AUB47th35thALAALA72nd117thAUBOn the ground
AUB24th4thALAALA47th25thAUBStaying on the field
AUB32nd1stALAALA34th62ndAUBTaking care of it
AUB104th22ndALAALA104th22ndAUB
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAlabama leads 51–32–1 · Alabama has won 6 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| AUB | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.7 (#29) | CORE overall | +31.9 (#4) |
| +3 / -12 | offense / defense | +9 / -23 |
| 2.29 | points / drive | 3.38 |
| 0.65 | allowed / drive | 0.26 |
| 14% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Auburn vs. Alabama?
Gridpex's model favors Alabama with a 65% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Auburn vs. Alabama?
The model projects Alabama by 6.2.
What time is Auburn vs. Alabama and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →