Florida vs. Georgia Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 2.5 toward 
UGA
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | UGA −12.5 | UGA −15 |
| UGA win | 81% | 84% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Georgia gets at Florida: 5th on first and second down, against a unit 78th on early downs defensively. Florida projects no clear way in against Georgia. Georgia is also 10th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 61st.
HowUGAattacks
FLA
- 1
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
UGA#5 of 138FLA#78 of 138 - 2
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
UGA#10 of 138FLA#61 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
UGA#5 of 138FLA#47 of 138
The two teams
Florida
Florida is in year 1 under Jon Sumrall, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 114th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Florida has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#114projected
Georgia
Georgia is in year 11 under Kirby Smart, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 3rd at closing out passing downs. The way in is 134th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −41.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Georgia has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#3projected
- Defenserunning it#4projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#4projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#134projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Availability-adjusted projection
what the absences moveAvailability impact
Model estimate- Out Kahleil Jackson (WR)not quantified
No ruled-out starters
Estimates from our player value-over-replacement model (reliable for QBs; softer elsewhere) — a calibrated prior, not a market or backtested figure. Context only, not a betting edge.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UGA Elo 1948, FLA Elo 1658 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects UGA -15 (84% to win) — 2.5 points clear of UGA's market line of -12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
FLA5th1stUGAUGA2nd26thFLAThrough the air
FLA19th6thUGAUGA17th77thFLAOn the ground
FLA19th10thUGAUGA15th43rdFLAStaying on the field
FLA58th80thUGAUGA11th89thFLATaking care of it
FLA75th22ndUGAUGA48th9thFLA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesGeorgia leads 58–44–2 · Georgia has won 5 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| FLA | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 6.00 | points / drive | 4.08 |
| 2.10 | allowed / drive | 1.24 |
| 9% | three-and-outs | 17% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Florida vs. Georgia?
Gridpex's model favors Georgia with a 84% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Florida vs. Georgia?
The model projects Georgia by 15.0.
What time is Florida vs. Georgia and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →