NC State vs. Vanderbilt Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where NC State gets at Vanderbilt: 55th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 108th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Vanderbilt gets at NC State: 47th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 128th at keeping everything in front of them. NC State is also 19th at throwing it, against a unit 61st.
How
NCSUattacks
VAN
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
NCSU#55 of 138VAN#108 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
NCSU#19 of 138VAN#61 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
NCSU#16 of 138VAN#54 of 138
HowVANattacksNCSU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
VAN#47 of 138NCSU#128 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
VAN#2 of 138NCSU#47 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected
VAN#2 of 138NCSU#45 of 138
The two teams
NC State
NC State throws it: Dave Doeren's offenses have been pass-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 16th at turning trips inside the 40 into points. The way in is 128th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −31.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
NC State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#16projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#16projected
- Offensethrowing it#19projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#128projected
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is in year 6 under Clark Lea, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at running it. The way in is 108th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −12.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Vanderbilt has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#2projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#2projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#3projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#108projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1746, NCSU Elo 1506 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN -9.2 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NCSU20th48thVANVAN96th44thNCSUThrough the air
NCSU95th52ndVANVAN72nd8thNCSUOn the ground
NCSU18th28thVANVAN89th96thNCSUStaying on the field
NCSU25th4thVANVAN104th9thNCSUTaking care of it
NCSU75th76thVANVAN21st76thNCSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NCSU | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.64 | points / drive | 2.54 |
| 3.09 | allowed / drive | 1.00 |
| 55% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win NC State vs. Vanderbilt?
Gridpex's model favors Vanderbilt with a 72% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for NC State vs. Vanderbilt?
The model projects Vanderbilt by 9.2.
What time is NC State vs. Vanderbilt and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 12:45 PM ET, at FirstBank Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →