Georgia vs. Arkansas Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 4.5 toward 
ARK
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  UGA −23.5 | UGA −19 |
| ARK win | 7% | 11% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Georgia gets at Arkansas: 10th at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 131st at shutting down the ground game. Arkansas projects no clear way in against Georgia. Georgia is also 5th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 120th.
HowUGAattacksARK
- 1
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
UGA#10 of 138ARK#131 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
UGA#5 of 138ARK#120 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
UGA#15 of 138ARK#127 of 138
The two teams
Georgia
Georgia is in year 11 under Kirby Smart, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 3rd at closing out passing downs. The way in is 134th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −41.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Georgia has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#3projected
- Defenserunning it#4projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#4projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#134projected
Arkansas
Arkansas throws it: Ryan Silverfield's offenses have been pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 19th at running it. The way in is 131st at shutting down the ground game, and they are 127th at closing out passing downs.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −19.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arkansas has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#19projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#23projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#26projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#131projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#127projected
- Defensethrowing it#120projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1490, UGA Elo 1948 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARK +19 (11% to win) — 4.5 points clear of ARK's market line of +23.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UGA2nd98thARKARK128th1stUGAThrough the air
UGA17th68thARKARK52nd6thUGAOn the ground
UGA15th42ndARKARK118th10thUGAStaying on the field
UGA11th48thARKARK34th80thUGATaking care of it
UGA48th76thARKARK104th22ndUGA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesGeorgia leads 12–4 · Georgia has won 3 straight · 25% have been one-possession games
| UGA | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 4.08 | points / drive | 1.00 |
| 1.24 | allowed / drive | 4.20 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 40% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Georgia vs. Arkansas?
Gridpex's model favors Georgia with a 89% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Georgia vs. Arkansas?
The model projects Georgia by 19.0.
What time is Georgia vs. Arkansas and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET, at Razorback Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →