Missouri vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIZTeam statsKU
- Q4 2:02MIZBrett Norfleet 13 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)38–21
- Q4 11:46MIZBlake Craig 32 Yd Field Goal 31–21
- Q3 2:07KUNahzae Cox 10 Yd pass from Isaiah Marshall (Martin Connington Kick)28–21
- Q3 10:52MIZXai'Shaun Edwards 10 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)28–14
- Q3 11:40MIZDonovan Olugbode 8 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)21–14
- Q2 0:30MIZCayden Lee 27 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)14–14
- Q2 1:48KUNik McMillan 20 Yd pass from Isaiah Marshall (Martin Connington Kick)7–14
- Q2 5:22MIZJamal Roberts 64 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)7–7
- Q2 7:16KUAustin Alexander 88 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Martin Connington Kick)0–7
How it was won
Kansas 20‑yard TD swing
Kansas briefly surged when Isaiah Marshall connected with Nik McMillan for a 20‑yard touchdown, boosting its win chance by 23 %.
Missouri moved the ball at a 36.6 % success rate and +0.48 EPA per pass, outpacing Kansas’s 30 % and +0.38.
Missouri punt decision
Missouri’s punt on 4th‑and‑1 at its own 60 cost an estimated 1.09 points, a choice the model favored to go for it.
How the model called it
Missouri has won four straight in this series and is favored again, yet nearly every unit matchup on the field belongs to Kansas.
Missouri and Kansas have met 111 times since 1901, Missouri leads the series 55-48-8, and 45 percent of those meetings were decided by a single possession. Missouri has taken the last four, most recently 42-31 in Columbia. That scoreline is the useful half of the history: Missouri won, and Kansas still scored 31, which is close to the shape of a 32-18 projection sitting under a total of 50.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MIZ ahead, below = KU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassAustin Simmons 19/29, 292 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJamal Roberts 28 CAR, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonovan Olugbode 6 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
- PassIsaiah Marshall 13/30, 168 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushDylan Edwards 6 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecNik McMillan 2 REC, 52 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri vs. Kansas?
Missouri 38, Kansas 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIZ) was correct.
| MIZ | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 469 | Total yards | 255 |
| 292 | Passing yards | 174 |
| 177 | Rushing yards | 81 |
| 21 | First downs | 18 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 3-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-5 |
| 19/30 | Comp/Att | 14/31 |
| 9.7 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 10-76 | Penalties | 11-89 |
| 31:21 | Possession | 28:39 |
- Q4 2:02MIZBrett Norfleet 13 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)38–21
- Q4 11:46MIZBlake Craig 32 Yd Field Goal 31–21
- Q3 2:07KUNahzae Cox 10 Yd pass from Isaiah Marshall (Martin Connington Kick)28–21
- Q3 10:52MIZXai'Shaun Edwards 10 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)28–14
- Q3 11:40MIZDonovan Olugbode 8 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)21–14
- Q2 0:30MIZCayden Lee 27 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)14–14
- Q2 1:48KUNik McMillan 20 Yd pass from Isaiah Marshall (Martin Connington Kick)7–14
- Q2 5:22MIZJamal Roberts 64 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)7–7
- Q2 7:16KUAustin Alexander 88 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Martin Connington Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1473, MIZ Elo 1703 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KU +14.4 (18% to win) — 10.4 points clear of MIZ's market line of +4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMissouri leads 55–48–8 · Missouri has won 4 straight · 45% have been one-possession games
| MIZ | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.8 (#24) | CORE overall | +2.2 (#63) |
| +4 / -10 | offense / defense | +3 / +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Kansas's explosive plays are Missouri's one real vulnerability
Missouri has won four straight in this series and is favored again, yet nearly every unit matchup on the field belongs to Kansas.
Missouri wins
The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward Missouri, the more likely Missouri wins.
Last year's 42-31 says Kansas scores, and that Missouri scores more
Missouri controlled that meeting and still never held Kansas under 31 points, and the unit grades point at the same problem: Kansas's big-play offense sits 1.31 standard deviations above what Missouri's defense handles, the largest single mismatch on the field. Missouri is favored by 6.5 with the total at 50.5, a price that expects Kansas to move the ball and expects Missouri to answer it more often.
Missouri opened 54-14 over Arkansas-Pine Bluff eight days ago, scoring on 66.7 percent of 12 drives at 46.1 yards a possession. Kansas answered 51-6 over Long Island, scoring on 80 percent of 10 drives at 58.3 yards a possession. The number that travels out of those two afternoons is Missouri's three-and-out rate of 25 percent against Kansas's 10 percent, because that is the one Kansas can actually attack on Saturday.
Kansas graded 7th against the run last season, and Missouri's offense is built to run into exactly that: Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts carry the projection while Matt Zollers projects for 47 to 97 passing yards. A quarter of Missouri's possessions ending in three plays against an FCS defense matters because Zollers is not the rescue for a stalled series, and Kansas is the first defense this year positioned to force them.
Every unit edge on the field belongs to Kansas
Kansas's offense holds the advantage on big plays at +1.31, in the run game at +1.22 and in overall efficiency at +1.01 against Missouri's defense, and Kansas's defense holds a full standard deviation against Missouri's explosive passing. Missouri wins one category on the entire board, short-yardage power at +0.72. That is an unusual profile for a road team laying 6.5 points, and it is why 32-18 is a projection rather than a promise.
Each unit matchup this season, sorted by how decisive it is — the top bar is what most tilts the game. Bars toward Missouri are battles it should win; toward Kansas are ones Kansas wins.
Kansas can score in two snaps while Missouri has to convert third-and-short and finish drives it starts, and those styles do not trade evenly. Missouri's 25 percent three-and-out rate is the pressure point: each empty possession returns the ball to the offense carrying that +1.31 big-play edge. Stack three of them and 32-18 becomes the one-score finish this game projects at 28 percent.
The defensive side is not what a 6.5-point line implies either. Kansas graded 7th against the run and 38th against the pass last season, and holding Long Island to six points on 10 drives does nothing to argue against those marks. Neither defense has been asked a question by an FBS offense yet, but Missouri is the team whose projected route to 32 points runs through the tougher of the two fronts.
Neither quarterback is going to decide this one
Matt Zollers appeared in seven games last season and projects for 47 to 97 passing yards with a 43 percent chance of a touchdown against a pass defense that graded 38th. Cole Ballard appeared in five and projects for 12 to 24 passing yards. Two starters with no real body of work at this level, and no honest way to call either the better one, which pushes the afternoon onto the run and the chunk play.
How far each factor swings the win probability when it breaks one way vs the other. The top bar is the X-factor — the thing most worth watching.
With Zollers projected under 100 yards, Missouri does not need its quarterback to win this, and Kansas cannot ask Ballard to. For both sides the pass becomes a source of explosive plays rather than volume, which is precisely where Kansas's +1.31 edge lives. Kansas's realistic upside Saturday is three snaps rather than a twelve-play drive, and Cam Pickett at 15 to 48 receiving yards is the player that arithmetic runs through.
Ahmad Hardy against a 7th-ranked run defense is the game
Hardy projects for 80 to 152 rushing yards with a 67 percent chance of a touchdown, and the width of that band is the honest read: his volume is close to fixed, his efficiency against a front that graded 7th is not. Jamal Roberts adds 28 to 78 yards with a 34 percent touchdown chance, which makes him a second body in the same plan rather than the answer if Kansas bottles Hardy up.
Missouri's lone structural edge, short-yardage power at +0.72, is the same skill that converts Hardy's carries into points against that front, and it is the cleanest road to 32. If Kansas holds at the line of scrimmage instead, Donovan Olugbode at 24 to 56 receiving yards and Brett Norfleet at 11 to 35 with a 36 percent touchdown chance are not the passing game that saves a stalled afternoon.
Kansas's counter is 31 points, and it has scored them on Missouri
Kansas put 31 on this opponent in Columbia last season and then scored on 80 percent of its 10 drives in the opener at 58.3 yards a possession. Cam Pickett at 15 to 48 receiving yards against a Missouri secondary that graded 55th and Isaiah Marshall at 9 to 26 on the ground are modest individual lines, which is the point: the +1.31 big-play edge is the one that does not require volume to cash.
Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward Missouri are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).
What actually separates these programs is a full season rather than a September afternoon. Missouri went 8-5 and averaged 30.2 points last year; Kansas went 5-7 at 28.1 and has now lost four straight in this series. That weekly floor against real opponents is doing more work in a 32-18 projection than either 54-14 or 51-6 against an FCS opponent can undo in one week.
Missouri needs the run to travel, Kansas needs three snaps
Missouri needs Hardy in the top half of that 80 to 152 band and a three-and-out rate well under last week's 25 percent, a combination that clears 6.5 without asking anything of Zollers. Kansas needs its big-play edge to cash early, a clean turnover margin, and a fourth quarter still inside one possession, the way 45 percent of these 111 meetings have actually finished.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →