Texas vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEXTeam statsVAN
- Q4 0:46VANEli Stowers 8 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)27–24
- Q4 1:57TEXBert Auburn 23 Yd Field Goal 27–17
- Q3 3:11VANJunior Sherrill 3 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)24–17
- Q3 8:54TEXBert Auburn 40 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q2 0:00VANBrock Taylor 54 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 5:04TEXDeAndre Moore Jr. 25 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)21–7
- Q1 1:13TEXDeAndre Moore Jr. 27 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)14–7
- Q1 5:37TEXMatthew Golden 3 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:40VANDiego Pavia 18 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassQuinn Ewers 27/37, 288 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushQuintrevion Wisner 17 CAR, 79 YDS
- RecDeAndre Moore Jr. 6 REC, 97 YDS, 2 TD
- PassDiego Pavia 16/29, 143 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushDiego Pavia 16 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJunior Sherrill 5 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEX up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,296 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:46VAN +17%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 8 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
- Q4 0:45TEX +16%
[NH] Kneel down by EWERS, Quinn at VANDY48 (team loss of 1)
- Q1 5:37TEX +9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 3 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
- Q1 9:40VAN +8%
Diego Pavia run for 18 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
- Q3 3:11VAN +5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 3 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas vs. Vanderbilt?
Texas 27, Vanderbilt 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
| TEX | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 392 | Total yards | 269 |
| 288 | Passing yards | 155 |
| 104 | Rushing yards | 114 |
| 20 | First downs | 17 |
| 9-15 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 27/37 | Comp/Att | 17/31 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 5.0 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 10-107 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 31:09 | Possession | 28:51 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:58 VAN punt on 4th & 6 at TEX 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.18 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:46VANEli Stowers 8 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)27–24
- Q4 1:57TEXBert Auburn 23 Yd Field Goal 27–17
- Q3 3:11VANJunior Sherrill 3 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)24–17
- Q3 8:54TEXBert Auburn 40 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q2 0:00VANBrock Taylor 54 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 5:04TEXDeAndre Moore Jr. 25 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)21–7
- Q1 1:13TEXDeAndre Moore Jr. 27 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)14–7
- Q1 5:37TEXMatthew Golden 3 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:40VANDiego Pavia 18 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1396, TEX Elo 2089 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN +25.3 (6% to win) — 8.3 points clear of TEX's market line of +17. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesVanderbilt leads 7–4–1 · Texas has won 2 straight · 58% have been one-possession games
| TEX | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +29.1 (#5) | CORE overall | -3.8 (#79) |
| +10 / -19 | offense / defense | +2 / +6 |
| 2.74 | points / drive | 2.46 |
| 1.13 | allowed / drive | 2.53 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →