Tennessee vs. Missouri: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TENNTeam statsMIZ
- Q4 5:50MIZDaylan Carnell 38 Yd Interception Return (Harrison Mevis Kick)7–36
- Q4 6:21MIZLuther Burden III 21 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Harrison Mevis Kick)7–29
- Q3 2:38MIZHarrison Mevis 23 Yd Field Goal 7–22
- Q3 10:04MIZBrady Cook 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)7–19
- Q2 0:00MIZHarrison Mevis 46 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 10:33MIZCody Schrader 7 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)7–10
- Q2 12:25TENNDont'e Thornton Jr. 46 Yd pass from Joe Milton III (Charles Campbell Kick)7–3
- Q2 14:16MIZHarrison Mevis 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJoe Milton III 22/34, 267 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJoe Milton III 10 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecRamel Keyton 4 REC, 57 YDS
- PassBrady Cook 18/24, 275 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCody Schrader 35 CAR, 205 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCody Schrader 5 REC, 116 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIZ up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,204 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:04MIZ +22%
Brady Cook run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q2 10:33MIZ +19%
Cody Schrader run for 7 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
- Q2 12:25TENN +17%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 46 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
- Q3 2:38MIZ +17%
Harrison Mevis 23 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:00MIZ +11%
Harrison Mevis 46 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 14:16MIZ +8%
Harrison Mevis 31 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Tennessee vs. Missouri?
Tennessee 7, Missouri 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TENN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TENN | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 350 | Total yards | 530 |
| 267 | Passing yards | 275 |
| 83 | Rushing yards | 255 |
| 15 | First downs | 26 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 11-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 22/34 | Comp/Att | 18/24 |
| 7.9 | Yards per pass | 11.5 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-95 | Penalties | 7-50 |
| 20:04 | Possession | 39:56 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:49 TENN punt on 4th & 12 at MIZ 38. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:50MIZDaylan Carnell 38 Yd Interception Return (Harrison Mevis Kick)7–36
- Q4 6:21MIZLuther Burden III 21 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Harrison Mevis Kick)7–29
- Q3 2:38MIZHarrison Mevis 23 Yd Field Goal 7–22
- Q3 10:04MIZBrady Cook 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)7–19
- Q2 0:00MIZHarrison Mevis 46 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 10:33MIZCody Schrader 7 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)7–10
- Q2 12:25TENNDont'e Thornton Jr. 46 Yd pass from Joe Milton III (Charles Campbell Kick)7–3
- Q2 14:16MIZHarrison Mevis 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIZ Elo 1643, TENN Elo 1948 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIZ +9.8 (27% to win) — 7.8 points clear of TENN's market line of +2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#18 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #108 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds · #49 of 51 in 2023 by biggest poll gap.
The 2023 upset archive →The series is level at 6–6 · 25% have been one-possession games
| TENN | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +19.8 (#13) | CORE overall | +20.7 (#12) |
| +12 / -8 | offense / defense | +12 / -9 |
| 2.54 | points / drive | 2.80 |
| 1.53 | allowed / drive | 1.82 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →