Buffalo vs. Eastern Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BUFTeam statsEMU
- Q4 8:39BUFCole Snyder 2 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)50–31
- Q4 13:32BUFAlex McNulty 28 Yd Field Goal 43–31
- Q3 2:08BUFAlex McNulty 37 Yd Field Goal 40–31
- Q3 9:15BUFJamari Gassett 65 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick)37–31
- Q3 10:38EMUDarius Boone Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)30–31
- Q2 0:00BUFAlex McNulty 41 Yd Field Goal 30–24
- Q2 0:28EMUAustin Smith 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)27–24
- Q2 3:30BUFMike Washington 4 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)27–17
- Q2 8:18EMUJesus Gomez 35 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q2 12:01BUFMike Washington 2 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)20–14
- Q1 1:43EMUTanner Knue 10 Yd pass from Austin Smith (Jesus Gomez Kick)13–14
- Q1 5:35BUFQuian Williams 13 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty PAT blocked)13–7
- Q1 12:57EMUJaylon Jackson 89 Yd Kickoff Return (Jesus Gomez Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:11BUFCole Snyder 1 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassCole Snyder 20/29, 297 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRon Cook Jr. 19 CAR, 92 YDS
- RecQuian Williams 6 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAustin Smith 12/19, 190 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushAustin Smith 12 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTanner Knue 3 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBUF up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 9:15BUF +27%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 65 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
- Q3 10:38EMU +25%
Darius Boone Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)
- Q2 3:30BUF +23%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
- Q2 0:28EMU +22%
Austin Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jesus Gomez KICK)
- Q1 11:44EMU +20%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the EMich 35
- Q1 11:44BUF +19%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the EMich 23
FAQ
What was the final score of Buffalo vs. Eastern Michigan?
Buffalo 50, Eastern Michigan 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked EMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BUF | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 498 | Total yards | 327 |
| 297 | Passing yards | 190 |
| 201 | Rushing yards | 137 |
| 29 | First downs | 13 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 4-4 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 20/29 | Comp/Att | 12/19 |
| 10.2 | Yards per pass | 10.0 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-15 | Penalties | 6-63 |
| 38:37 | Possession | 21:23 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:35 BUF punt on 4th & 2 at EMU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.29 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:39BUFCole Snyder 2 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)50–31
- Q4 13:32BUFAlex McNulty 28 Yd Field Goal 43–31
- Q3 2:08BUFAlex McNulty 37 Yd Field Goal 40–31
- Q3 9:15BUFJamari Gassett 65 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick)37–31
- Q3 10:38EMUDarius Boone Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)30–31
- Q2 0:00BUFAlex McNulty 41 Yd Field Goal 30–24
- Q2 0:28EMUAustin Smith 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)27–24
- Q2 3:30BUFMike Washington 4 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)27–17
- Q2 8:18EMUJesus Gomez 35 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q2 12:01BUFMike Washington 2 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)20–14
- Q1 1:43EMUTanner Knue 10 Yd pass from Austin Smith (Jesus Gomez Kick)13–14
- Q1 5:35BUFQuian Williams 13 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty PAT blocked)13–7
- Q1 12:57EMUJaylon Jackson 89 Yd Kickoff Return (Jesus Gomez Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:11BUFCole Snyder 1 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (EMU Elo 1386, BUF Elo 1345 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects EMU -4 (62% to win) — 2.5 points clear of BUF's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#41 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #72 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Eastern Michigan leads 7–6 · Buffalo has won 2 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| BUF | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.5 (#90) | CORE overall | -5.1 (#84) |
| -6 / +1 | offense / defense | +3 / +8 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 2.48 |
| 1.99 | allowed / drive | 2.54 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →