Jacksonville State vs. Florida International: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Jacksonville State2-1
▸
Florida International0-2
Final
FIU Stadium
JXSTTeam statsFIU
444Total yards156
159Pass84
285Rush72
26First downs6
6-163rd down2-11
0Turnovers1
42:16Possession17:44
- Q4 2:35JXSTAlen Karajic 23 Yd Field Goal 19–10
- Q3 2:28FIUNate Jefferson 6 Yd pass from Stone Norton (Chase Gabriel Kick)16–10
- Q3 9:53JXSTAlen Karajic 20 Yd Field Goal 16–3
- Q2 2:08JXSTAlen Karajic 39 Yd Field Goal 13–3
- Q2 11:43JXSTJosh Samuel 2 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)10–3
- Q1 5:58JXSTAlen Karajic 30 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 9:45FIUChase Gabriel 37 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
Market line
FIU −10.5
Against the number
JXST covered
line FIU −10.5
Kickoff146 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
FIU (top)JXST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FIU 0%
Closing line
FIU −10.5
Closing total
55.5
Model line
—
Actual result
JXST 19 – 10 FIU
consensus, liveFIU −10.5total 55.5
Jacksonville State
- PassZion Webb 12/17, 103 YDS
- RushJosh Samuel 25 CAR, 163 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAhmad Edwards 3 REC, 62 YDS
Florida International
- PassStone Norton 5/14, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- RushD'vonte Price 9 CAR, 43 YDS
- RecNate Jefferson 2 REC, 38 YDS, 1 TD
27.2sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
128
Points / snap
0.23
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsJXST up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
77%
JXST went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Jacksonville State vs. Florida International?
Jacksonville State 19, Florida International 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
JXST
FIU
47%
Success rate
23%
0.34
EPA / pass
-0.14
0.04
EPA / rush
-0.15
49%
Early-down success
23%
46%
Pass success
19%
47%
Rush success
27%
12%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
7%
18%
Stuffed rush rate
14%
33%
Pass rate
49%
6.0
Avg 3rd-down distance
5.9
JXST
6.0 yards to go on 3rd down
85 scrimmage snaps
FIU
5.9 yards to go on 3rd down
43 scrimmage snaps
| JXST | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 444 | Total yards | 156 |
| 159 | Passing yards | 84 |
| 285 | Rushing yards | 72 |
| 26 | First downs | 6 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 2-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 17/25 | Comp/Att | 7/19 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 4.4 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-30 | Penalties | 4-26 |
| 42:16 | Possession | 17:44 |
JXST
7/8 with the model
−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob
FIU
6/7 with the model
−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q3 9:53 JXST field goal on 4th & 3 at FIU 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishJXST 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →FIU 2/10 scoring drives
FIUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1
JXSTPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 20Q1
FIUFG6 pl, 20 yds· opp 40Q1
JXSTFG10 pl, 62 yds· own 25Q1
FIUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1
JXSTTD14 pl, 98 yds· own 2Q1
FIUPUNT6 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q2
JXSTFG12 pl, 55 yds· own 23Q2
FIUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
JXSTEND4 pl, 18 yds· own 34Q2
JXSTFG11 pl, 72 yds· own 25Q3
FIUFUM4 pl, 29 yds· own 25Q3
JXSTMISS7 pl, 39 yds· own 46Q3
FIUTD7 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q3
JXSTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3
FIUMISS6 pl, 14 yds· opp 37Q3
JXSTPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 23Q4
FIUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 30Q4
JXSTFG14 pl, 66 yds· own 27Q4
FIUDOWNS4 pl, 0 yds· own 40Q4
JXSTEND3 pl, -3 yds· opp 40Q4
- Q4 2:35JXSTAlen Karajic 23 Yd Field Goal 19–10
- Q3 2:28FIUNate Jefferson 6 Yd pass from Stone Norton (Chase Gabriel Kick)16–10
- Q3 9:53JXSTAlen Karajic 20 Yd Field Goal 16–3
- Q2 2:08JXSTAlen Karajic 39 Yd Field Goal 13–3
- Q2 11:43JXSTJosh Samuel 2 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)10–3
- Q1 5:58JXSTAlen Karajic 30 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 9:45FIUChase Gabriel 37 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesJacksonville State were +10.5 — a 26% shot
#57 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #35 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →