USC vs. Iowa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USCTeam statsIOWA
- Q4 1:43IOWANick Niemann 25 Yd Interception Return (Keith Duncan Kick)24–49
- Q4 12:52IOWABrandon Smith 6 Yd pass from Nate Stanley (Keith Duncan Kick)24–42
- Q3 3:54IOWATyler Goodson 1 Yd Run (Keith Duncan Kick)24–35
- Q3 13:29USCStephen Carr 2 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)24–28
- Q2 0:00USCChase McGrath 32 Yd Field Goal 17–28
- Q2 1:18IOWAIhmir Smith-Marsette 12 Yd pass from Nate Stanley (Keith Duncan Kick)14–28
- Q2 5:48IOWAIhmir Smith-Marsette 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Keith Duncan Kick)14–21
- Q2 6:03USCVavae Malepeai 16 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Chase McGrath Kick)14–14
- Q2 11:22IOWAIhmir Smith-Marsette 6 Yd Run (Keith Duncan Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:37USCDrake London 4 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Chase McGrath Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:25IOWATyrone Tracy Jr. 23 Yd Run (Keith Duncan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKedon Slovis 22/30, 260 YDS, 2 TD
- RushVavae Malepeai 8 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecAmon-Ra St. Brown 9 REC, 163 YDS
- PassNate Stanley 18/27, 213 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTyler Goodson 18 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNico Ragaini 2 REC, 54 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIOWA up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:05IOWA +19%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 1 yd to the USC 25
- Q2 6:03USC +19%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 16 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)
- Q2 11:22IOWA +16%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 6 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)
- Q3 13:29USC +16%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)
- Q3 3:54IOWA +16%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)
- Q1 4:37USC +16%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 4 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of USC vs. Iowa?
USC 24, Iowa 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IOWA) was correct.
| USC | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 356 | Total yards | 328 |
| 334 | Passing yards | 213 |
| 22 | Rushing yards | 115 |
| 20 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 8-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 34/48 | Comp/Att | 18/28 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 1.2 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-21 | Penalties | 4-23 |
| 26:36 | Possession | 33:24 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:43IOWANick Niemann 25 Yd Interception Return (Keith Duncan Kick)24–49
- Q4 12:52IOWABrandon Smith 6 Yd pass from Nate Stanley (Keith Duncan Kick)24–42
- Q3 3:54IOWATyler Goodson 1 Yd Run (Keith Duncan Kick)24–35
- Q3 13:29USCStephen Carr 2 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)24–28
- Q2 0:00USCChase McGrath 32 Yd Field Goal 17–28
- Q2 1:18IOWAIhmir Smith-Marsette 12 Yd pass from Nate Stanley (Keith Duncan Kick)14–28
- Q2 5:48IOWAIhmir Smith-Marsette 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Keith Duncan Kick)14–21
- Q2 6:03USCVavae Malepeai 16 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Chase McGrath Kick)14–14
- Q2 11:22IOWAIhmir Smith-Marsette 6 Yd Run (Keith Duncan Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:37USCDrake London 4 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Chase McGrath Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:25IOWATyrone Tracy Jr. 23 Yd Run (Keith Duncan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IOWA Elo 1874, USC Elo 1690 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects IOWA -7.4 (70% to win) — 6.9 points clear of IOWA's market line of -0.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#31 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #105 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →USC leads 8–3 · 36% have been one-possession games
| USC | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.2 (#26) | CORE overall | +12.8 (#24) |
| +11 / -1 | offense / defense | +1 / -11 |
| 2.68 | points / drive | 2.17 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 1.13 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +15 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →